football-prediction

Football prediction model

This repository contains the code of a personal project where I am implementing a simple “Dixon-Coles” model to predict the outcome of football games in Stan, using publicly available football data.

As a starting point, I would suggest looking at the notebook overview.Rmd summarising what I have done during this project, which one could access by clicking here: Getting started.

A more detailed analysis, is conducted in the other files in this repository:

• Utility functions are available in functions.R.
• The script prior_pred_check.R includes the implementation of the prior predictive checks, fake data checks and the pipeline to generate and evaluate predictions.
• The model is fitted to real data in fitting.R and posterior predictive checks are performed.
• The predictive performance of the model is assessed in validation.R.

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